Thursday, November 7, 2013

Related Posts: Are asking renta prices really rising? How to read the Rightmove


On his blog Mead, of London’s Douglas & Gordon , writes:
The sensationalist element in any stat is the one that ends up being used, of course, but when someone renta in a position of responsibility turns round and says that asking prices have gone up by over 10% in one month, and then allows such a stat to be used as house prices have gone up 10% in a month , they should surely be looking askance at it.
To then follow it up with a senior director s comment, quoting some brash agent, claiming the cupboard is bare simply exacerbates the problem. (It s more likely to be because no one is selling, by the way, but Rightmove wouldn t want to be saying that now, would they?)
So let s examine what the Rightmove stats are simply a measure of asking renta prices in a defined area over the preceding month. What does that tell us? Simply an average of those who ve decided to go to the market this month, nothing more, nothing less, not REAL sold prices, not valuing a basket of typical properties, just a cheap easy press of a button.
Mead is right, of course: the Rightmove index is an asking price index. Moreover, as I’ve pointed put on these pages before , it’s also an index based on a very selective renta segment of asking prices: renta the new properties advertised over the previous month.
The notes on the index for October state: “ Rightmove measured 127,902 asking prices circa 90% of the UK market. The properties were put on sale by estate agents from 8th September 2013 to 12th October 2013 and advertised on Rightmove.co.uk .”
Does this selective use of the available data matter? I think it does. The Rightmove renta index crucially leaves out all of the other property currently on the market – and Rightmove lists over 1 million properties for sale or rent, so that’s an awful lot of asking prices they’re not including in their index.
Home.co.uk, which works this way, says asking prices in London were up 2% last month, compared with the whopping 10% cited by Rightmove. Their figures are based on a massive sample of almost 700,000 asking prices – which, to our mind, casts doubt over Rightmove’s claim to being “the largest, renta most accurate and up-to-date monthly index” of asking prices.
Home.co.uk renta also use an independent company to analyse their data - Calnea Analytics, the people who also produce the official Land Registry Index. Rightmove, as far as I know, produce their index in-house, without any such external validation, which, to my mind, a makes it a little less credible.
And finally – a really useful asking price index would combine the various methods and tell us A) the asking price of all properties on the market B) the asking price of the newest and C) the number of properties that have had their asking price reduced (or increased) over the month.
Related Posts: Are asking renta prices really rising? How to read the Rightmove… What Rightmove s 3% price rise is really saying about the… Are asking price indices useless? renta Asking prices … why are the indices at odds? House price indices … does size really matter?
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